Below is the 2026 commercial construction outlook from inside ACG's bid book. Not from a research report. From the actual flow of bids, awards, and project starts crossing our desk this quarter.
Restaurant construction in Florida has not slowed. Our restaurant bid volume in Q1-Q2 2026 is up 18% over Q1-Q2 2025. South Florida (Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Palm Beach), Naples / SW Florida, and Tampa Bay are all delivering new concepts and tenant improvement work. Indoor-outdoor concepts (folding walls, multi-slide doors) are the dominant glass story. Brand-quality steakhouses and chef-driven concepts are the bid-volume leaders.
Hotel construction is strong in resort destinations (Naples, Marco Island, Anna Maria Island, Key Largo, Florida Keys) and rebound-mode in urban markets (downtown Miami, downtown Fort Lauderdale, Brickell). Slower in the suburban hotel segment. Curtain wall work is the dominant scope; balcony rail glass is a meaningful secondary revenue stream.
Office construction has surprised us by recovering faster than national headlines suggest. Class-A office in Brickell, downtown Fort Lauderdale, downtown West Palm Beach, downtown Tampa, and Water Street Tampa is all delivering. Medical office has been steadier than general office throughout 2024-2026. Class-B office and suburban office are still soft.
MOB construction has been the most consistent commercial vertical in our bid book for two years. ACG installed MOB glass on 38 projects in 2024-2025. Cleveland Clinic Florida, JFK Medical Center, Lee Health, Tampa General, and AdventHealth all driving capital programs. Specialty clinics (orthopedic, GI, vision, dental) are filling in the smaller TI work.
Florida K-12 construction is on a predictable summer-turnover cycle. We bid the work in November-February for awards in March-May and installs June-August. Post-Parkland security vestibule work continues to drive specialty bid volume. Charter network expansion is a meaningful secondary source.
Mall in-line retail (Hyde Park Village, Naples 5th Avenue, Las Olas, Worth Avenue, Design District) is delivering steady volume. Freestanding pad-site retail is moderate. Big-box (Walmart, Target, Home Depot) is quiet — most chains paused new construction in 2024-2025.
We're opening Nashville in Q3 2026. The Tennessee commercial market is doing what Miami did in 2018-2022: explosive growth in mixed-use, ground-floor commercial, restaurant, and office. Less competitive than South Florida — maybe 20-30 real commercial glaziers serving Middle Tennessee vs the 200+ in South Florida. We are not the first; we are not the largest; we are bringing a different operating model.
Three things to watch. (1) Hurricane season 2026 — if a major storm hits coastal Florida, insurance claim work disrupts new construction crew availability for 4-6 weeks. (2) Federal interest rate decisions — commercial owners pause new starts when rates spike. (3) Labor cost inflation — Florida glazier hourly wage was up 11% in 2024-2025 per BLS data. If 2026 adds another 8-10%, project pricing tightens for everyone.
Hiring slowly. Building more AI tooling. Expanding to a less-competitive market (Tennessee). Investing in client retention more than client acquisition. The glaziers who survive the next economic cycle are the ones with the cleanest operations, not the ones with the biggest sales teams.
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